Despite the expectations of a fourth-quarter loss, Wall Street expects Ford to report a small revenue increase for all of 2025 — but still lose money.
The Q4 lost is expected due to the company taking a $19.5 billion charge to account for costs related to its move away from its robust electric vehicle plans and toward more hybrid models currently in demand by consumers.
The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker reports its Q4 and FY 2025 earnings on Tuesday after the market closes at 4 p.m. EST. The company also issued revised earnings for all of 2025 as part of its third-quarter earnings presentation.
Ford expects full-year 2025 company adjusted EBIT of $6 billion to $6.5 billion; adjusted free cash flow of $2 billion to $3 billion — the production disruption results in an oversized short-term impact on our working capital, which will reverse next year — and capital expenditures of about $9 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s automotive revenues for FY2025 is $173 billion, which is a modest increase of about 1% compared to 2024. But, the consensus mark for full-year earnings per share (EPS) is $1.31, a 39 percent year-over-year decline. There is an expectation of a big rebound now that Ford has cleared its books of the EV charges. The consensus for 2026 EPS is a 35.2 percent jump compared with projected 2025 levels.
For the fourth quarter, analysts are expecting Ford’s r evenue to decline 8.1 percent year to $44.3 billion, a reversal from the 4.9 percent increase it recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to come in at $0.19 per share.
“While I firmly believe that the long-run picture for the company will probably be fine, I am a bit discouraged by a couple of developments. On top of this, the economy seems to be worsening, and there is a real risk that sales will weaken this year compared to last year,” Seeking Alpha Analyst Daniel Jones wrote in a recent report.
However, it’s important to note that Ford tends to come up big during earnings season. Seeking Alpha analysts note the company’s beaten earnings and revenue estimates 88 percent of the time during the past two years.
[Images: Ford]
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